Nvidia's Q3 earnings are dropping November 19th, and everyone's acting like they're about to witness the Second Coming. Seriously, you'd think Jensen Huang was walking on water instead of just selling overpriced GPUs. The stock closed at $190.17 on Friday, a pathetic little 1.77% bump. Down 8% from its peak? Give me a break.
The Hype Train is Overheating
Oppenheimer and Bank of America are practically orgasming over Nvidia, throwing around price targets of $265 and $275 like they're Monopoly money. Oppenheimer Sets the Stage for Nvidia Stock Ahead of Earnings, Lifting the Price Target to $265 - TipRanks Bank of America's even jacking up their EPS estimates way out into freakin' 2028. What, are they using a crystal ball now?
And the data center capital expenditure nonsense...$3 to $4 TRILLION by 2030? That's like saying I'm gonna win the lottery and buy a small country. Sure, Jan.
They expect Nvidia to pull in $207 billion in revenue during FY 2026. That's a lotta cheddar. But here's the thing: everyone's so hopped up on the AI Kool-Aid that they're ignoring the giant elephant in the room – skepticism is growing. People are starting to realize that AI ain't magic, and maybe, just maybe, it's not worth mortgaging your house for.
Burry's Betting Against the Farm
Speaking of reality checks, Michael Burry – yeah, the "Big Short" guy – is shorting Nvidia AND Palantir. That's gotta sting a little, right? He's claiming these AI hyperscalers are artificially boosting earnings. Now, I ain't saying Burry's always right, but the dude's got a nose for BS, and this smells ripe.
It's the classic "picks and shovels" play, right? Nvidia sells the GPUs, everyone builds AI on top, and Nvidia rakes in the cash. But what happens when the gold rush ends? What happens when everyone realizes AI can't solve all their problems, and the demand for these ridiculously expensive chips dries up?
And let's be real, cloud capital expenditure worries are conveniently "seasonal" and peak in Q4? That sounds like corporate spin to me. Like saying the check is in the mail.
Here's a question for the geniuses on Wall Street: if Nvidia is so damn amazing, why did SoftBank dump all their shares? $5.8 billion worth straight into OpenAI. Hmm, makes you wonder, don't it?
Nvidia got a first-mover advantage in the AI arms race, sure. Their GPUs are top-notch, and their infrastructure is supposedly the best. But "best" doesn't equal "invincible." And less than 30 times next year's earnings? That's still pricy, especially if this whole AI bubble bursts.
Nvidia will have three chip generations of experience by 2026, but so what? Experience ain't everything. Sometimes, you just get complacent and someone else comes along and eats your lunch.
So, What's the Real Story?
This whole thing feels like a house of cards built on hype and wishful thinking. Everyone's so desperate to believe in the AI revolution that they're ignoring the obvious risks. Nvidia might have a good quarter, they might even have a great year. But long-term? I ain't betting my retirement on it. I'd rather invest in lead, bullets, and canned goods. At least then I'll be ready for the apocalypse, offcourse.